Courtesy Python Maps
My last post was not the end of the chemtrail/contrail story. It goes much deeper. This post is an attempt to elaborate further and form a bridge between fake science and real science (basically I'm doing the research for you). I will talk about three related subjects: changes in global air traffic, the composition of contrails, and stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), also sometimes known as solar radiation management (SRM), both of which are forms of geoengineering.
Changes in Global Air Traffic
One of the things that upsets chemtrail believers is the apparent increase in trails in recent years, plus their propensity to linger longer, thereby eventually forming large cirrus clouds. According to experts, this is due mainly to two major changes in air traffic..
First, global air traffic has increased. While there was a drop in commercial traffic during COVID-19, it has rebounded and, as of 2024, has now surpassed pre-pandemic levels. The graphic at the top of this post shows global air routes and the graphic below is a snapshot of the number of aircraft in the air at a specific moment. By 2030, North American intra-regional traffic is expected to grow by about 30% over 2019 levels, while Asian intra-regional traffic is expected to grow by about 55%. These increases mean a lot more aircraft in the sky, thus potentially more contrails. The increases are driven primarily by personal travel, and air cargo due to e-commerce. [1] [2]
Courtesy RadarBox.com
Second, modern aircraft are flying higher. More efficient, state-of-the-art commercial airliners such as the Airbus A350 and the Boeing 787 fly above 38,000 ft in order to decrease drag and incease fuel efficiency, whereas older aircraft fly at around 35,000 ft. The newer model engines also have reduced carbon (i.e., soot) emissions; however, there are unintended consequences. Due to colder temperatures at the higher altitudes, contrails are more likely to form and to last longer. As well, private jets fly above 40,000 ft and generate a disproportionate number of large contrails, compared to commercial aviation. [3] [4]
The Composition of Contrails
Contrails consist of the aircraft's gas turbine engines' exhaust, mixed with ambient air. The graphic and table below illustrate this quite clearly.
Courtesy atmosfair
Courtesy atmosfair
As you can see, more pollutants are being added to the atmosphere than just CO2. .Some, like nitrogen oxide and sulphate particles, reduce the greenhouse effect, but most increase the effect. In a sense, the chemtrail believers are semi-correct, but all this is without any chemicals purposely being injected into the exhaust stream. So, yes, contrails by themselves are indeed a problem, causing around 3.5 % of the world's total anthropogenic warming. [5]
Stratospheric Aerosol Injection
Where chemtrail believers get it wrong is in timing. They believe that aircraft exhaust plumes have already been purposely injected with chemicals or small metallic particles in a grand, secret scheme to change the climate and/or to eventually poison or reduce the population. This is simply not true. An extensive study in 2016 with 77 experts (atmospheric scientists with expertise in condensation trails and geochemists working on atmospheric deposition of dust and pollution) resulted in over 98% of them agreeing that there is simply no secret atmospheric spraying program in existence. [6]
What has been discussed, studied, and tested through analysis and simulation is stratospheric aerosol injection (yes, basically what the chemtrail folks believe is already being done). Stratospheric aerosol injection is a solar radiation management geoengineering, or climate engineering approach that uses tiny reflective particles or aerosols to reflect sunlight into space in order to cool the planet and reverse or stop Global Warming. The approach involves spraying reflective sulfate aerosol particles into the stratosphere with high altitude airplanes, tethered balloons, high-altitude blimps or artillery. Other reflective aerosols that are being considered for this solar radiation management approach include black carbon, metallic aluminum, aluminum oxide and barium titanate, but with potentially serious health risks. [7]
This approach is both controversial and still full of uncertainties, not only because of the potential health risks, but also because a planned program of SAI would be next to impossible to keep secret as it would require tens of thousands of flights over an extended period of several years. [8] [9] Moreover, it would require uniquely designed aircraft flying at very high altitude, and would probably have to be restricted to tropical climate zones because that is where dispersal is the most efficient. [10] This would, in turn, drive up costs, extend a start date, and require that all countries within the delivery zone come to an agreement to carry out the program, a daunting task in itself. It could also have the potential to affect countries who werre not signatories to such an agreement, which leads to the question of ethics. [11]
Finally, let us not overlook purely commercial interests in such a large scale program. As Smith and Wagner point out [11], "While there might be a long list of contractors who would eagerly bid to vend hardware, supplies, and services to an SAI endeavor, and there might even be a role for patents along that supply chain [12] [13], we believe strongly that commercial profits must not be a motivating factor in any decisions about whether, when, where, and how to implement SAI. Any entity that intends to engineer the climate of the entire globe must act—and be seen to act—purely out of humanitarian and environmental considerations unclouded by aspirations of direct financial gain."
References:
[1] Weston, G., Schulte, A., Gerow, D., Kurganov, Y., and Khomenko, R. (2024, August 5). Air Travel Forecast to 2030: The Recovery and the Carbon Challenge. Bain & Company. Retrieved October 17, 2024, from https://www.bain.com/insights/air-travel-forecast-interactive/#:~:text=Annual%20air%20travel%20demand%20remains,(see%20Figure%201%20above).
[2] technavio. (2024, May). Commercial Airlines Market Analysis APAC, Europe, North America, Middle East and Africa, South America - US, China, UK, Germany, India - Size and Forecast 2024-2028. technavio. Retrieved October 17, 2024, from https://www.technavio.com/report/commercial-airlines-market-analysis
[3] Gryspeerdt, E., Stettler, M.E.J., Teoh, R., Burkhardt, U., Delovski, T., Driver, O.G.A., and Painemal, D. (2024, August 7). Operational differences lead to longer lifetimes of satellite detectable contrails from more fuel efficient aircraft. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 19, Number 8. Retrieved October 17, 2024, from https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5b78
[4] Fraser-Baxter, S.E. (2024, August 7). Study on planet-warming contrails “a spanner in the works” for aviation industry. Imperial. Retrieved October 17, 2024, from https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/255315/study-planetwarming-contrails-spanner-works-aviation/
[5] Overton, J. (2022, June 9). Issue Brief | The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation (2019, updated 2022). Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI). Retrieved October 18, 2024, from https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-the-growth-in-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-commercial-aviation
[6] Shearer, C., West, M., Caldeira, K., and Davis, S.J. (2016, Augusat 10). Quantifying expert consensus against the existence of a secret, large-scale atmospheric spraying program. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 11, Number 8. Retrieved October 20, 2024, from https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084011
[7] Effiong, U. and Neitzel, R.L. (2016, December). Assessing the direct occupational and public health impacts of solar radiation management with stratospheric aerosols. Environmental Health 15(1). Retrieved October 21, 2024, from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291186092_Assessing_the_direct_occupational_and_public_health_impacts_of_solar_radiation_management_with_stratospheric_aerosols
[8] Määttänen, A., Lameille, T., Kloeck, C., Boucher, O., and Ravetta, F. (2024, June 26). Uncertainties and confidence in stratospheric aerosol injection modelling: a systematic literature review. Oxford Open Climate Change, Volume 4, Issue 1. Retrieved October 21, 2024, from https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/4/1/kgae007/7699797
[9] Smith, W. and Wagner, G. (2018, November 23). Stratospheric aerosol injection tactics and costs in the first 15 years of deployment. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 13, Number 12. Retrieved October 21, 2024, from https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d/meta
[10] Janssens, M., de Vries, I.E., Hulshoff, S.J. et al. (2020). A specialised delivery system for stratospheric sulphate aerosols: design and operation. Climatic Change 162, 67–85. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02740-3
[11] Zukerman, B. (2024). An Ethical Evaluation of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection. Markkula Center for Applied Ethics. Retrieved October 21, 2024, from https://www.scu.edu/environmental-ethics/resources/an-ethical-evaluation-of-stratospheric-aerosol-injection/
[12] Reynolds, J., Contreras, J., and Sarnoff, J. (2017). Solar climate engineering and intellectual property: toward a research commons Minnesota J. Law, Sci. Technol. 18, 1.
[13] Reynolds, J. L., Contreras, J. L., and Sarnoff, J. D. (2018). Intellectual property policies for solar geoengineering. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Climate Change 9.
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